Are we headed for another tube crisis? Our audio hobby is just a miniscule part of the world economy and within that sphere tube lovers are an even smaller subgenre. Here in America every new tube that I can think of outside of Western Electric’s 300B is imported. There seems to be no way to avoid the price increases that are coming. What does this mean for those of us who do not have a large tube stash and want to tube roll? What does this mean for equipment manufacturers and retailers who don’t already have a warehouse full of tubes for production or sale? In my experience Audiophiles are a different breed, but can tube manufacturers and retailers stay afloat in the American market  if American guitar aficionados and tube amp neophytes cut back significantly due to pricing?
I like to keep my receipts for audio purchases. In 2018 an octet of gold lion KT-77 delivered cost $275.95. The same tubes purchased today without shipping costs included now range from a low of $555.89 to a high $623.60 from the three reputable online stores that I feel comfortable shopping with.  Prices for other tubes that I’ve receipts for such as quads of Tung Sol el34b & Electro-Harmonix 6ca7 are cheaper now than when I purchased them two years ago while the prices for KT-88s from Gold Lion and Electro-Harmonix have increased significantly. All these prices are going up. What are our options?

It seems like the smaller reputable dealers of NOS tubes had their inventory wiped out during the first “crises” and never recovered so this appears not to be a viable option. The hoarding and buying panic appear real looking back at that time.

I’ve felt comfortable purchasing some NOS rectifiers, input tubes and voltage regulation tubes in anticipation of the Tori Jr. that I’ve on order based upon recommendations here on the forum off eBay, but big ticket purchases on eBay just scare me with  what may be NOS counterfeiting, rejects being sold as A stock, and most of all listings with those frightening words “test good or test strong”.

What is your opinion?

I don't buy current production, and have been collecting a more or less lifetime supply of tubes from the "golden age of tube tech" aka the 1940s - 1970s over the years. I feel like stocking up is always a good idea because I just don't see tubes getting any cheaper in the future regardless of the day's news. That works for me but JMO/YMMV as always.

Also JMO but you should have at least one spare complete set of tubes on hand at all times anyway. You never know when a tube is going to go bad, and the best way to check for a bad tube is to replace it with a good one.

While we each have our preferences in either choosing NOS or new production, the one thing that still remains mandatory (unless you’re ok with downtime) is having a replacement option for each required tube at any given time.  This was an expensive proposition for the Sarah, but I chose to get Steve’s stock set and then went on to purchase an additional set from Cryotone.  In addition, I also have at least 2 replacement rectifiers and 4-5 options for the 12AU7 input tube.

In terms of reliability, there are multiple reputable NOS tube dealers (Brent Jesse was my go to when I was buying NOS tubes), so you don’t have to rely on eBay.  Alternatively, if you pay attention to the classifieds on this forum, you will find it a trustworthy source with stand up sellers/members who will make situations right if things go south.  I’ve had one case where the seller refunded me and took back a tube that was noisy on my amp and another case, where the seller sent me a new tube after his used one arced immediately after purchase.